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Posted by Tyler Durden

The Empire Strikes Out: Institutionalists Failed To Kill The Stablecoin Bill

Authored by Zachary Kelman via CoinTelegraph.com,

In 2021, Crypto-America was in the doldrums. Senator Elizabeth Warren and her loyal SEC enforcer, Gary Gensler, unleashed a blitzkrieg against crypto, bombarding platforms with lawsuits and pushing legislation so heavy-handed that many feared it would cripple America’s burgeoning crypto industry.

The pièce de résistance of regulatory absurdity arrived as a poison pill in the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) — the notorious “DeFi Broker Rule.” Under this provision, protocols and node operators were given the Kafkaesque requirement of collecting the names and addresses of every wallet holder on their blockchains. 

Senate debates openly acknowledge the impossibility of compliance, and it’s difficult to chalk the rule up to typical congressional technophobia or geriatric malaise. With Gensler’s quixotic crusade at full tilt, the American crypto community felt sucker-punched, with many looking abroad for refuge from what seemed less like incompetence and more like deliberate sabotage.

The GENIUS Act

The DeFi Broker Rule, like Gensler’s broader crusade, died on the vine earlier this year, even after its scope was belatedly narrowed to entities “capable” of identifying wallet holders in a last-ditch face-saving effort.

Its demise rendered moot the painstaking efforts node operators worldwide undoubtedly undertook, scrambling to collect the names and addresses of millions of wallet holders, instantly transforming the newly minted IRS Form 1099-DA into an accounting enthusiast’s collector’s item destined never to be filed.

Yet Warren and her fellow institutionalists marched onward, unfazed, eyes fixed firmly on their next target — the GENIUS Act.

Warren, the former banking law professor and senior member of the Senate Banking Committee responsible for drafting the act, deployed virtually every regulatory scare tactic imaginable to halt the bill through 72 separate amendments.

One failed effort stood out with particular menace, eerily echoing the logic of the DeFi Broker Rule. This amendment sought to saddle stablecoin issuers with the Sisyphean duty of monitoring and reporting every illicit transaction occurring downstream — forever.

On the surface, such a demand might appear merely complex, unlike the impossible demands of the original IIJA DeFi Broker Rule. But complexity isn’t the real issue here; absurdity is. Expecting banks to identify customers or flag suspicious activity is one thing. It’s quite another to burden currency issuers with permanent accountability for every future crime involving their tokens. Imagine holding the US Treasury responsible for tracking every drug deal paid for in cash.

Stablecoin showdown

Had Warren simply insisted, as the original Bank Secrecy Act does, that stablecoin issuers identify third parties receiving initial blocks of stablecoins rather than policing all future use, her proposal might have been palatable to the bipartisan Senate Banking Committee and included in the Genius Act.

Such a measured approach would have been easily achievable by dominant stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle. Indeed, Tether was prominently named last week in a DOJ case celebrated by Warren, involving Russian nationals using the stablecoin to evade sanctions — a development highlighted by outlets like The Wall Street Journal as bolstering Warren’s position.

While Warren correctly noted that sanctions enforcement through traditional banking and international wire monitoring is stronger than through stablecoins, her position overlooked the inevitability of technological change. Fellow Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand recognized this reality and rejected Warren’s amendments, instead prioritizing the dollar hegemony promoted by the GENIUS Act. Gillibrand notably argued that the crypto ecosystem should have run on dollar-denominated stablecoins rather than yuan or renminbi.

Who stood to gain the most from Warren’s overreach? Big banks like Bank of America, which recently announced its own stablecoin, following JPMorgan’s lukewarm JPM Coin and Citigroup’s internal 2015 “CitiCoin” experiment. Armed with legions of compliance lawyers, these lumbering financial giants thrive precisely when smaller, agile crypto-native competitors suffocate under regulatory overhead. Despite casting herself as David battling banking Goliaths, Warren often ends up arming them with regulatory weapons or convenient talking points, particularly regarding crypto.

Warren’s efforts weren’t entirely in vain, as she partially succeeded with an amendment to mitigate executive branch corruption risks associated with stablecoins. She specifically spotlighted a $2 billion USD1 stablecoin deal struck in Abu Dhabi, in which Emirati-backed MGX used a Trump family-associated stablecoin to invest in Binance.

Although other senators prevented Warren’s amendment from explicitly including the president and vice president, arguing existing ethics laws already covered them, Warren’s linkage of President Donald Trump’s acceptance of a $400 million Boeing 747 from Qatar to the MGX transaction telegraphs future campaign narratives, lawfare or congressional investigations if Democrats regain power.

The American crypto community should note that Warren’s heavy-handed regulations aren’t random technophobic acts; they’re deliberate institutional maneuvers aimed at controlling the narrative and preserving power. Instead of killing the stablecoin bill, the institutionalists exposed their hand and inadvertently cleared the bases for crypto’s next big inning.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 08:40
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Posted by Tyler Durden

Futures Rise Ahead Of Record $5.9 Trillion Triple-Witching OpEx

US equity futures are higher with small caps leading after the White House appeared to dial back speculation that Washington was on the verge of joining Israel’s strikes on Iran, while Reuters reported that Iran is ready to discuss limitations on its Uranium enrichment (if not going anywhere near close to what the US/Israel bid is for complete enrichment halt). As of 8:00am, S&P futures rose 0.2% and traded at session highs, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.3% with Mag 7 stocks mixed and TSLA (+1.4%) outperforming. The big highlight today is a record (for June) $5.9 trillion option expiration which will see dealer gamma tumble and "unclench", allow the market to move much more freely. Bond yields are 2-3bp higher while the USD is lower even as the USDJPY approaches a 1 month high. Commodities are lower: oil drops on renewed hopes for Iran deescalation; aluminum and precious metals are also down. Headline focus continues to be on Middle-East tensions after Trump disclosed he will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran. Elsewhere, Japan in focus with hotter inflation data overnight (driven by continued surge in rice prices) and reports of larger-than-expected planned cutback to superlong JGB issuance. WTI reached $77 briefly on Thursday before coming down to $73 this morning. It's a quiet end to the week: US economic data slate includes June Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am) and May Leading Index (10am). No Fed speakers are scheduled. 

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks rebound alongside index futures but are mixed with TSLA outperforming (Tesla +1.3%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta Platforms -0.1%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%, Alphabet -0.4%, Nvidia -0.5%). 

  • Accenture shares (ACN) are down 3.9% in premarket trading, after the IT services company reported its third-quarter results and gave an outlook.
  • Capricor Therapeutics shares (CAPR) fell 4.4% in premarket trading after Nicole Verdun, super office director at Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, was placed on administrative leave.
  • Circle Internet Group shares (CRCL) are set to extend gains, rising 11% in premarket trading. The stablecoin issuer rallied almost 34% on Wednesday after the US Senate passed stablecoin legislation setting up regulatory rules for crypto currencies pegged to the dollar.
  • GMS shares (GMS) rise 28% in premarket trading on Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Home Depot has made an offer for the building materials firm, potentially setting off a bidding war with QXO which made a $5 billion offer earlier in the week.
  • Johnson Controls International Plc shares (JCI) fell 1% in premarket trading after Oppenheimer cut its recommendation on the building products company to perform from outperform.
  • Mondelez (MDLZ) advances 0.5% in premarket trading following an upgrade to overweight at Wells Fargo, which sees its bull case for the Oreo-cookies maker becoming “more tangible.”
  • Tesla (TSLA) is outperforming fellow Magnificent Seven stocks in premarket trading on Friday, rising 1.7%.

While markets remains focused on geopolitics, the big event for markets today is today's $5.9 trillion option expiration, including $4.0 trillion of SPX options and $925 billion notional of single stock options. This options expiration will be the largest June expiration on record...

Going back to geopolitics, sentiment was boosted after the White House said on Thursday that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to attack Iran, and there was still a “substantial chance” of a negotiated settlement.  Israel, meanwhile, struck more of Iran’s nuclear sites and warned it could bring down Tehran’s leadership as both sides awaited the US president’s decision. Iran maintained Friday it won’t negotiate with the US while Israel’s assault continues. With the weekend in sight, traders appear to be staying on the sidelines, unsure about the trajectory of the conflict. 

“One must of course be aware of the potential for significant gapping risk at the Sunday night open, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve over the weekend,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “Some trimming of risk, and squaring of positions, seems likely as today goes on.”

Some extreme scenarios resulting from increased US involvement in the Israel-Iran war could push oil prices as high as $130 to $150 a barrel, particularly if Iran retaliates in a major way, said Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics Ltd. Such a development would pause further policy easing by central banks, she said. Brent futures have been pricing in a geopolitical premium of about $8 a barrel since Israel and Iran began attacking each other last week, according to a survey of analysts and traders. US intervention in the conflict would bolster that further, but exactly how much would depend on the nature of the involvement, the nine respondents said.

“The recent air strikes pose risks to the new energy market landscape; however, further fallout for global energy prices seems, for now at least, limited,” said Kieran Calder, head of Asia equity research at Union Bancaire Privee in Singapore. “Markets tend not to price in geopolitical risks until there is a conflagration, and they are currently showing little sign of factoring in a worst-case outcome.”

Markets were rattled earlier in the week after the Fed downgraded its estimates for growth this year and projected higher inflation. “Even though central banks would like to think that would be a temporary impact, I think it would be a brave central bank that would cut interest rates,” McKeown said on Bloomberg TV.

European stocks also rose as the White House downplays the likelihood of imminent US military action against Iran. The Stoxx 600 snapped a three-day losing streak, up 0.5%. Travel, banks and tech outperform as almost all sectors climb, barring energy. Among individual movers in Europe, TUI AG gained the most in two months after Barclays Plc double-upgraded the stock, citing robust demand for packaged travel. Berkeley Group Holdings Plc slumped after the homebuilder announced management changes and cited persistent regulatory headwinds as it reported earnings. Here are some of the more notable European movers: 

  • TUI shares gain as much as 5.7%, the most in two months, as Barclays double-upgrades the stock. Analysts see a unique, though complex business with earnings momentum, supported by robust demand for packaged travel
  • Akzo Nobel shares rise as much as 2.5% after the specialty chemicals firm was placed on a positive catalyst watch at JPMorgan, which now has stronger conviction in earnings upgrades resulting from the group’s upcoming results
  • Zealand Pharma shares gain as much as 2.5%, paring this week’s drop to 13%. The recent selloff following early data for Eli Lilly’s rival amylin drug eloralintide is “overdone,” according to KBC
  • Eutelsat shares rise as much as 27% after announcing a plan to raise €1.35 billion in new equity, offering the satellite firm crucial financial resources to expand its low-earth orbit constellation
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera shares rise as much as 5.8% after the German company announced the acquisition of key assets from Danish firm Green Hydrogen Systems, which said it will seek bankruptcy protection after its restructuring process failed
  • Demant shares climb as much as 1.9% after Barclays upgraded the stock to equal-weight from underweight, citing the Danish hearing aid maker’s “more achievable guidance,” as well as growing optimism around market share dynamics
  • Berkeley’s shares fall as much as 9.9%, their worst one-day drop since March 2020. While the homebuilder’s earnings were in line with expectations, the company flagged persistent regulatory headwinds, with analysts saying prospects for a recovery are unclear

Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced after news that President Donald Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran, allaying some concerns over immediate US involvement. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%, with chip-related stocks SK Hynix and Advantest among the biggest boosts. South Korea’s Kospi closed above 3,000 points for the first time since December 2021, and a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong rose 1.4%. Stocks fell in Japan and Australia. The MSCI Asian benchmark is still poised to end the week lower after a two-week streak of gains. Middle East tensions have put risk sentiment back in check as investors eye the potential impact on oil prices in particular.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, extending its losses into a second day. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was little changed as cash market reopened following a holiday. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 145.62; Japan’s key consumer inflation measure accelerated more than expected to 3.7% from a year earlier in May. GBP/USD up 0.2% to 1.3495; UK retail sales suffered the sharpest fall since 2023, a sign the economy could be struggling in the second quarter.

In rates, treasuries are steady as US markets reopen post-holiday. European yields erase earlier drop are are now little changed across the curve, while the euro and pound both gain. JGB futures turn lower and USDJPY trades near 145.50 after Japan proposes to cut the issuance of super-long bonds this year by more than earlier reported. 

In commodities, Brent crude falls 2% to around $77.20, giving back gains from earlier in the week. Gold is down some $16 to around $3,354/oz. Bitcoin climbs. 

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include UK retail sales  which had their sharpest fall since 2023 in May, slumping 2.7%, more than the estimated 0.5% decline, Euro Area money supply for May, preliminary consumer confidence for June, and the US Conference Board’s leading index for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoJ Governor Ueda, and the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.1%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
  • DAX +0.9%
  • CAC 40 +0.6%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +4 basis point at 4.43%
  • VIX -1.6 points at 20.57
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1207.39
  • euro +0.3% at $1.1527
  • WTI crude +0.7% at $75.66/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Oil prices eased and stock futures pared some losses after President Trump signaled he would give some time for negotiations before deciding on potential strikes on Iran, and after a Senior Iranian Official said Iran was ready to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment: RTRS
  • Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to “unconditionally” stop Israel. BBG
  • China sent the highest number of warplanes toward Taiwan since October, the island’s defense ministry said. BBG
  • China’s record 1.18 billion-barrel oil stockpile is cushioning refiners from potential supply shocks in the Middle East. The high buffer, soft margins and seasonal demand weakness means they’re in no rush to replace Iranian crude. BBG
  • US tariff hikes on small packages from China caused a 40% drop in shipments in May from a year ago, with the value of small parcels falling to just over $1 billion. BBG
  • Japan's consumer inflation measure accelerated to a fresh two-year high, with consumer prices excluding fresh food rising 3.7% from a year earlier in May. BBG
  • Japan is planning to cut the issuance of super-long bonds this year by more than earlier reported as it tries to restore calm to a market spooked by recent record highs in yields. The Finance Ministry proposed reducing the issuance of 20-, 30- and 40-year bonds by a total of ¥3.2 trillion ($22 billion) through the end of March 2026. BBG
  • UK retail sales had their sharpest fall since 2023 in May, slumping 2.7%, more than the estimated 0.5% decline. BBG
  • EU Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis said the EU was ready to take measures with the US if a solution could not be found, but noted that progress was being made in trade talks with Washington: RTRS
  • Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada would introduce a series of countermeasures to help it respond to Trump-era tariffs. He stated that Canada would adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium products on 21 July: RTRS
  • QXO Inc proposed to acquire interior-construction-products distributor GMS Inc for $95.20 a share. Roofing-products distributor QXO said Wednesday the proposal implies a total value of $5 billion and is a 27% premium over GMS’s 60-day volume-weighted average price. BBG
  • Democratic staffers are meeting with the parliamentarian’s office today, GOP aides will also have their own meetings. After that, full Byrd Bath arguments with GOP and Democratic staffers will start Sunday: Punchbowl 

Trade/Tariffs

  • EU Economy Commissioner Dombrovskis said the EU was ready to take measures with the US if a solution could not be found, but noted that progress was being made in trade talks with Washington, according to Reuters.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada would introduce a series of countermeasures to help it respond to Trump-era tariffs. He stated that Canada would adjust its existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminium products on 21 July. The level of Canadian counter-tariffs would depend on the progress of talks with the US on a new economic deal. He added that only Canadian producers and producers from trading partners offering Canada tariff-free reciprocal access would be eligible to compete for federal government procurement of steel and aluminium. Canada would adopt additional tariff measures to address risks associated with persistent global overcapacity and unfair trade in the steel and aluminium sectors. He also announced that Canada would establish new tariff rate quotas at 100% of 2024 levels on imports of steel products from non-free trade agreement partners, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese Commerce Ministry says its Minister held a video meeting with EU Trade Commissioner on Thursday; had "in-depth" talks on remedy cases such as EVs

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks initially saw directionless trade following a non-existent lead from Wall Street amid the Juneteenth market holiday. Nevertheless, geopolitics remained in the spotlight as US President Trump now has to decide whether or not to join Israel’s offensive against Iran’s nuclear facilities within the next two weeks, contingent on negotiations. Sentiment eventually turned mostly firmer with notable Israel-Iran newsflow on the lighter side. ASX 200 was subdued with miners dragging on the index whilst losses in financials also kept upside capped. Nikkei 225 was buoyed by recent JPY weakness but came off best levels in tandem with USD/JPY after Japanese Core CPI topped expectations, whilst stale BoJ minutes (from two meetings ago) were also released. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially choppy with the indices trimming modest earlier gains despite relatively quiet newsflow. The PBoC LPR setting was a non-event, with the central bank maintaining the 1-year and 5-year LPRs as expected.

Top Asian News

  • The PBoC maintained its 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.00% and its 5-year LPR at 3.50%, as expected, according to Reuters.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they had observed spikes in super‑long JGB yields recently, according to Reuters.
  • Minutes from the BoJ's 30 April – 1 May meeting showed that many members said they must carefully scrutinise each nation's trade policy and its developments, given the heightening downside risks to the economy and prices, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC injected 161.2bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.40%.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda says Japan's economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weakness, underlying inflation to gradually heighten after a pause.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened firmer, and are attempting to build on gains, benefiting from the positive mood surrounding geopolitical optimism. European sectors are almost entirely in the green, Energy is the sole loser, due to lower oil prices, which is to the benefit of travel and leisure, which gains. Banking stocks lead the charge, buoyed by fresh EU developments that see the European Investment Bank's annual lending ceiling raised to EUR 100bln.

Top European News

  • BoE's Bailey says "we are living in a world of much larger economic shocks which have their origins outside economic causes".

FX

  • DXY is flat and trading in a very tight 98.53-98.70 range, after falling a touch overnight on geopolitical updates which has seen the Dollar lose its risk premia a little. In the prior session, the Dollar slipped after US President Trump offered Iran a two-week window to monitor negotiations before deciding on military action. This sparked a risk-on mood, as it helps to ease some nerves of an imminent attack on Iran and hence an escalation in the Middle East. Data docket today includes US Philly Fed Business Index and Leading Index Change.
  • EUR is at the top of the G10 leaderboard, but ultimately just a little stronger vs the Dollar. No specific European-driver for the strength today, so likely on the geopolitical updates from Trump on Thursday (see above) – in brief, should the US choose not to attack Iran, this would be net-negative on crude prices and as such has lifted the Single-Currency today; gains are of course capped given the continued uncertainty. EUR/USD currently trading around the mid-point of a 1.1491-1.1532 range.
  • JPY is essentially flat/modestly firmer today but did catch a slight bid following the region’s inflation report. Headline Y/Y printed in-line with expectations whilst the Core metric was a touch above expectations, and in-fact printed the fastest Y/Y pace since January 2023. Following the release of the Japanese CPI report, USD/JPY fell from 145.29 to a session trough of 145.16, but now trades around 145.30.
  • GBP is incrementally firmer vs the USD but posts modest losses vs the EUR. Cable saw was mildly pressured on the release of a very weak Retail Sales report, whereby the M/M metrics fell beneath the most pessimistic of analysts’ forecasts; printing at -2.7% (exp. -0.5%). GBP/USD fell around 0.2% to make a fresh trough at 1.34470 in the hour after the Retail Sales report. Thereafter, the Pound has been trading relatively steady for most of the morning. Upside levels include its 21 DMA at 1.3518.
  • Antipodeans are incrementally firmer/flat vs the Dollar in what has been a lacklustre session so far. Specifics for the Aussie and Kiwi have been on the lighter side overnight.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1695 vs exp. 7.1801 (prev. 7.1729); strongest CNY fix since March 17th

Fixed Income

  • JGBs are essentially flat but did see some marked action in a 139.32 to 139.50 band as draft reporting and commentary emerges from the Ministry of Finance Meeting. In brief, Bloomberg citing a draft reported that Japan intends to cut super long issuance by JPY 3.2tln, by cutting JPY 100bln from 30yr and 40yr auctions and 200bln from the 20y; consensus was for 100bln in each tenor.
  • USTs incrementally firmer/flat as it returns to Cash trade following Thursday's holiday. Contained overnight, but was then pressured in the European morning, potentially as traders continue to digest and factor in the latest geopolitical optimism. Downside limited so far, and USTs remain above Thursday’s 110-22+ base.
  • Bunds were modestly firmer for much of the morning. Lifted by around 30 ticks on the UK retail metrics this morning (see Gilts). Peaked at a 131.33 high but has since been drifting and now finds itself back marginally below the figure, and by extension in proximity to the earlier 130.88 low; now essentially unchanged on the session.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 18 ticks, following an abysmal set of retail data. The series saw sales volumes fall across the board, the most pronounced move was in food and while that is somewhat skewed by an unfavourable prior, the series is nonetheless dire. While bid initially, and to a 93.05 peak, the move proved somewhat short-lived as Gilts also digested the latest PSNB data. A series that featured the highest May borrowing on record, ex-COVID; metrics that offset the dovish impulse from Retail Sales. Overall, Gilts now near-enough flat and at the lower-end of the day’s limited 92.83 to 93.05 band.
  • Japan plans to cut FY25 superlong JGB issuance by JPY 3.2tln, via Bloomberg citing a plan; Japan to cut 20yr bond issuance by JPY 200bln (exp. JPY 100bln); cut 30yr by JPY 100bln (exp. JPY 100bln); cut 40yr by JPY 100bln (exp. JPY 100bln), per auction. Japan to offset cuts by boosting the issue of 5yr and 2yr notes and T-bill.
  • Japan Finance Ministry Official does not deny the possibility of considering buying back some JGBs; not in the process of implementing buybacks right now; will need to consider various factors if steps are decided.

Commodities

  • Brent suffers losses of around USD 2/bbl on optimism of Middle-East negotiations, with Iran-E3 meetings today, and primarily after the two-week window Trump has provided. Note, while Brent is lower, WTI posts gains of USD 0.40/bbl, a discrepancy due to the lack of settlement amid the US holiday on Wednesday. Geopolitical updates this morning light, aside from, US Secretary of State Rubio telling his French counterpart that the US is ready for direct contact with the Iranians at any time, however the Iranian Foreign Minister noted that the nation would not speak with the US, while Israeli attacks continue.
  • Spot gold is suffering from the generally positive risk environment, currently holding around the USD 3350/oz mark but has been USD 10/oz lower; given the geopolitical relief, mentioned in the crude section. XAU has taken out the 21-DMA at USD 3345/oz, the next level comes via the June 12th low of USD 3338/oz.
  • Base metals are in the red and failing to benefit from the positive European mood after the red metal failed to coat-tail on the broadly firmer European risk tone. Copper currently tests the USD 9,600 mark, and resides within USD 9,565.45-9,654.6/t bounds.
  • Citi said that if 1.1mln BPD of Iranian oil exports were disrupted—using May exports as a baseline—it estimated prices should rise by about 15–20%, compared with an average of USD 65/bbl in the month before the Iran-Israel conflict escalated on 12 June. A 1.1mln BPD disruption implied Brent prices should be in the USD 75–78/bbl range. Citi added that prices reaching USD 90/bbl—its current bullish case, short of a major escalation in oil transit—would imply a disruption of 3mln BPD over a multi-month period, according to Reuters.
  • India restricted the import of alloys of palladium, rhodium, and iridium containing over 1% gold by weight, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East War

  • Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to “unconditionally” stop Israel, according to Bloomberg
  • E3/EU-Iran meeting in Geneva expected to occur "this afternoon", via WSJ's Norman.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Katz has ordered the military to increase attacks on Iranian regime targets within Tehran.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister says they will only hold nuclear talks in the E3 meeting.
  • Russia's Kremlin says dialogue with Ukraine continues expect to agree next week on a date for the next round of talks Ukraine is unpredictable, continue "special military operation", though would prefer to reach goals by diplomatic needs.

US Involvement

  • The White House said, “message directly from the President – based on the fact that there is a significant chance of negotiations with Iran in the near future – I will make a decision on whether to launch [an attack] in the next two weeks.”
  • US President Trump had been briefed on both the risks and benefits of bombing Fordow and his mindset was that disabling it was necessary due to the risk of weapons being produced in a relatively short period of time, according to CBS.
  • Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source, reported that the US had asked Israel to defer its attack on the Fordow nuclear facility.
  • Kann News reported that there was a "possible attack at Fordow": according to sources, the US had asked Israel to wait until negotiations with Iran had been exhausted.
  • US President Trump is to attend a National Security Meeting at 11:00 EDT on Friday.
  • US law enforcement officials had stepped up surveillance of Iran-backed operatives in the US, according to CBS sources.
  • The White House said Iran was able to produce a nuclear bomb within "a couple of weeks".
  • A White House official told Fox's Heinrich that the US military had no doubt about the efficacy of bunker busters in eliminating the site at Fordow, and also denied that any options—including tactical nuclear weapons—had been taken off the table.
  • The White House Press Secretary said there were no signs that China was getting involved militarily in Iran, according to Reuters.
  • The US reportedly believed Iran would build a nuclear bomb if Supreme Leader Khamenei were assassinated and the Fordow facility was attacked, according to The New York Times.

Strikes

  • There were reports of Israeli strikes in the Lavizan area of Tehran, where Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was reportedly hiding in a bunker, according to i24 journalist Stein.
  • An Israeli military spokesman said Israel had attacked the special forces headquarters of the internal security apparatus in Tehran within the last 24 hours, according to Reuters.
  • Journalist Horowitz said on X that opposition sources were circulating "unconfirmed" reports claiming that the head of Iran's military, Abdolrahim Mousavi, had been killed in an Israeli strike.
  • The Fars News Agency said Iran had used a new generation of precision missiles in its attack on Israel on Thursday morning, according to Fars.
  • The Norwegian Foreign Ministry said an explosion had occurred on Thursday evening in Tel Aviv at the residence of the Norwegian ambassador to Israel, according to Reuters.
  • The Jordanian army said an explosives-laden drone had fallen in the Azraq area after it “fell short of its range,” according to Al Hadath.
  • Iranian media reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Al Arabiya.

Diplomacy

  • Britain, France, and Germany are to hold talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister on Friday in a last-ditch effort to avert an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and a possible US intervention, according to FT.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister had reached out to European foreign ministers, requesting a meeting with them on Friday, Jerusalem Post reported.
  • Trump administration officials are pitching the president’s two-week timeline as an opportunity to allow diplomacy to play out. Special Envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi had been in communication in recent days, though there were no plans for the two to meet yet, according to ABC.
  • Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff will not attend the UK/France/Germany talks with Iran in Geneva on Friday, according to White House officials cited by NBC.
  • An Iranian source denied reports of a phone call between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US presidential envoy Witkoff following Israel’s aggression, according to Iran Nuances.
  • The White House Press Secretary said they would see how the EU meeting with the Iranians went tomorrow, according to Reuters.
  • US officials said no date had been set for a meeting between US and Iranian officials yet, according to Axios.

US Military and Deployment

  • Over the next 10 to 14 days, there were expected to be two aircraft carriers in the Middle East and a third operating in the Mediterranean Sea, according to ABC.

Iranian Actions

  • A senior IRGC official said that before the Israeli airstrikes, all enriched uranium had been transferred from the nuclear sites to secret hiding locations, according to i24 journalist Stein.
  • Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, quoting an Iranian official, said intelligence had thwarted a major Israeli plot against Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi in Tehran, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Iraq’s Hezbollah threatened to target US bases and close the Strait of Hormuz if Washington joined strikes on Iran, according to Al Hadath.
  • An Israeli official said Iran could likely sustain the current rate of missile fire at Israel for up to five months, provided their missile launchers were not destroyed, according to NBC.
  • Israel anticipated attacks from Iran’s proxies across the Middle East, according to Israel Channel 14.
  • An Israeli intelligence official said the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime was far from the truth, according to NBC.

Geopolitics: Other

  • A Japanese destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait after a Chinese jet approached it, according to Nikkei.
  • China President Xi met with New Zealand PM Luxon in Beijing, according to CCTV.

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets are recovering a bit this morning after White House spokeswoman Leavitt last night said that Trump had dictated a message saying that "based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks". 
Prior to this, several sources had pointed to a US strike on Iran possibly happening as soon as this weekend which led to a risk-off mood yesterday in the quiet US-holiday influenced session. 
So this should reduce the event risk ahead of the weekend and Brent futures, after closing the European session (+2.80%) and at the highest level since January at $78.85/bbl, are back down -2.44% to $76.93/bbl this morning. Even though US markets were closed yesterday, S&P 500 futures slid throughout the day and closed in Europe -0.93% lower with the Nasdaq equivalent -1.10%. This morning they have clawed back much of this lost ground to both be 'only' around -0.2% lower. 
Even with the falls this morning, Brent crude has now risen +20.52% since the start of the month, which would make this the biggest monthly jump since November 2020, back when the vaccine announcements offered a path out of the pandemic. So this is still a substantial move. 
That inflationary backdrop and earlier fears of a weekend US attack meant it was a tough environment for European markets yesterday, with equities and bonds both losing ground. So that meant the STOXX 600 (-0.83%) fell to a one-month low, with the more cyclical sectors leading the decline. Unsurprisingly, energy stocks were the main outperformer given the rise in oil prices, and the STOXX 600 Energy Index was up +0.79%. But otherwise there was a weak performance across the continent, with the DAX (-1.12%) and the CAC 40 (-1.34%) also losing ground. European equity futures are back up around +0.75% so far this morning. 
Elsewhere in Europe, the main headlines yesterday came from several central bank decisions, including the Bank of England. They left their policy rate on hold at 4.25%, as widely expected, but the vote was 6-3 to hold, with the minority preferring a 25bp cut. Looking forward, they maintained their language about a “gradual and careful approach” to easing policy, and markets continue to price another cut at the August meeting as likely. So if realised, that would continue the pattern of quarterly rate cuts since the easing cycle began last summer. In his recap (link here), our UK economist also expects the next rate cut in August, and thinks that the disinflation path remains on track, despite the recent energy news.
In other central bank news, there was a surprise from the Norges Bank yesterday, who cut rates by 25bps, despite widespread expectations for a hold beforehand. Unlike a lot of other central banks, they hadn’t yet cut rates from their peak after the tightening cycle of 2021-23, so it was an important move, and the statement said they felt it was “appropriate to begin a cautious normalisation of the policy rate.” With the decision coming as a surprise, that led to a noticeable weakening in the Norwegian Krone, which fell around a percent against the US Dollar. Otherwise, the Swiss National Bank also cut rates by 25bps yesterday (the sixth consecutive move), but that was in line with expectations. They are now back at zero with the SNB seemingly more likely than not to move into negative territory in the autumn to try to stem the rise in the Swiss Franc and to try to prevent ultra-low inflation from being embedded. There was some relief they didn't do this yesterday though. 
Those policy decisions didn’t have too much of an effect on European sovereign bonds, with investors more concerned about the prospect of higher inflation. So that pushed yields higher across the continent, including for 10yr bunds (+2.4bps), OATs (+5.9bps) and BTPs (+7.5bps). There was also a clear widening in sovereign bond spreads, consistent with the wider risk-off move, and the +5bps jump in the Italian spread over bunds was actually the biggest daily jump since early April.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning after hopes that US involvement won't come as early as this weekend and that diplomacy still has a chance. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.15%) is leading gains, climbing to its highest level since early 2022 while being closely followed by the Hang Seng (+1.13%). Elsewhere, the CSI (+0.24%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.08%) were relatively unaffected by the PBOC’s decision to leave its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.02%) is struggling to gain traction lagging most of its Asian peers after slightly higher consumer inflation data increased expectations that the BOJ will hike interest rates further in the coming months.
Japan's inflation data included a headline figure of 3.5% YoY (3.6% in April), a core CPI excluding fresh food of 3.7% (3.5%), and a core-core CPI excluding fresh food and energy of 3.3% (3.0%). The YoY increases in both the core and core-core CPI exceeded consensus expectations by 0.1 percentage point. However, as our economist has pointed out, the actual YoY increases in the core and core-core CPI were 3.654% and 3.259%, respectively, so the reality is that they only slightly exceeded consensus. The seasonally adjusted MoM increases were 0.5% for the core CPI and 0.3% for the core-core CPI. Short-term inflation momentum does remains strong and you can review these numbers in more details here with our economists' view on how they influence BoJ policy. He remains on the hawkish side and expects a hike next month. 

Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan (+0.09%) is gaining ground for the second straight day against the dollar, after the PBOC set fixing at the strongest level since March. 

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for May, the Euro Area money supply for May, preliminary consumer confidence for June, and the US Conference Board’s leading index for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoJ Governor Ueda, and the ECB will publish their Economic Bulletin.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 08:27
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Oil Prices Extend Losses As Iran Rejects Zero Enrichment As Condition For US Talks

A series of headlines, some contradictory, on where things stand with Iran nuclear negotiations with the US, sent oil sliding, then pumping, then extending losses again.

One senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran is 'ready' to discuss limitations on its uranium enrichment, while a quick follow-up headline said "zero enrichment will undoubtedly be rejected" by Iran "especially now, under Israel's strikes."

The official said "the role of European powers is now more prominent, as Tehran is unwilling to engage with US amid Israeli attacks. After that glimmer of hope offered for negotiations, the clarification that nothing has in fact change, sent oil dropping further Friday morning.

Oil prices declined on Friday but stayed on track for a third straight weekly increase, following the White House’s postponement of a decision regarding US participation in the Israel-Iran conflict.

By 1000 GMT, Brent crude futures had dropped $1.89, or 2.4%, to $76.96 per barrel, though they remained poised for a weekly gain of nearly 4%.

According to the latest from Bloomberg:

Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to “unconditionally” stop Israel.

More Friday and overnight headlines...

* * *

Geopolitics: Middle East War

  • Israel will complete the task of preventing Iran from gaining nuclear weapons whether or not the US joins the operation, its energy minister said. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the only way to end the war is to “unconditionally” stop Israel, according to Bloomberg
  • E3/EU-Iran meeting in Geneva expected to occur "this afternoon", via WSJ's Norman.
  • Israeli Defence Minister Katz has ordered the military to increase attacks on Iranian regime targets within Tehran.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister says they will only hold nuclear talks in the E3 meeting.
  • Russia's Kremlin says dialogue with Ukraine continues expect to agree next week on a date for the next round of talks Ukraine is unpredictable, continue "special military operation", though would prefer to reach goals by diplomatic needs.

US Involvement

  • The White House said, “message directly from the President – based on the fact that there is a significant chance of negotiations with Iran in the near future – I will make a decision on whether to launch [an attack] in the next two weeks.”
  • US President Trump had been briefed on both the risks and benefits of bombing Fordow and his mindset was that disabling it was necessary due to the risk of weapons being produced in a relatively short period of time, according to CBS.
  • Broadcasting Authority, citing an Israeli source, reported that the US had asked Israel to defer its attack on the Fordow nuclear facility.
  • Kann News reported that there was a "possible attack at Fordow": according to sources, the US had asked Israel to wait until negotiations with Iran had been exhausted.
  • US President Trump is to attend a National Security Meeting at 11:00 EDT on Friday.
  • US law enforcement officials had stepped up surveillance of Iran-backed operatives in the US, according to CBS sources.
  • The White House said Iran was able to produce a nuclear bomb within "a couple of weeks".
  • A White House official told Fox's Heinrich that the US military had no doubt about the efficacy of bunker busters in eliminating the site at Fordow, and also denied that any options—including tactical nuclear weapons—had been taken off the table.
  • The White House Press Secretary said there were no signs that China was getting involved militarily in Iran, according to Reuters.
  • The US reportedly believed Iran would build a nuclear bomb if Supreme Leader Khamenei were assassinated and the Fordow facility was attacked, according to The New York Times.

Strikes

  • There were reports of Israeli strikes in the Lavizan area of Tehran, where Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was reportedly hiding in a bunker, according to i24 journalist Stein.
  • An Israeli military spokesman said Israel had attacked the special forces headquarters of the internal security apparatus in Tehran within the last 24 hours, according to Reuters.
  • Journalist Horowitz said on X that opposition sources were circulating "unconfirmed" reports claiming that the head of Iran's military, Abdolrahim Mousavi, had been killed in an Israeli strike.
  • The Fars News Agency said Iran had used a new generation of precision missiles in its attack on Israel on Thursday morning, according to Fars.
  • The Norwegian Foreign Ministry said an explosion had occurred on Thursday evening in Tel Aviv at the residence of the Norwegian ambassador to Israel, according to Reuters.
  • The Jordanian army said an explosives-laden drone had fallen in the Azraq area after it “fell short of its range,” according to Al Hadath.
  • Iranian media reported that air defences were activated in Isfahan, according to Al Arabiya.

Diplomacy

  • Britain, France, and Germany are to hold talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister on Friday in a last-ditch effort to avert an escalation of conflict in the Middle East and a possible US intervention, according to FT.
  • Iran's Foreign Minister had reached out to European foreign ministers, requesting a meeting with them on Friday, Jerusalem Post reported.
  • Trump administration officials are pitching the president’s two-week timeline as an opportunity to allow diplomacy to play out. Special Envoy Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi had been in communication in recent days, though there were no plans for the two to meet yet, according to ABC.
  • Trump's special envoy to the Middle East Witkoff will not attend the UK/France/Germany talks with Iran in Geneva on Friday, according to White House officials cited by NBC.
  • An Iranian source denied reports of a phone call between Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US presidential envoy Witkoff following Israel’s aggression, according to Iran Nuances.
  • The White House Press Secretary said they would see how the EU meeting with the Iranians went tomorrow, according to Reuters.
  • US officials said no date had been set for a meeting between US and Iranian officials yet, according to Axios.

US Military and Deployment

  • Over the next 10 to 14 days, there were expected to be two aircraft carriers in the Middle East and a third operating in the Mediterranean Sea, according to ABC.

Iranian Actions

  • A senior IRGC official said that before the Israeli airstrikes, all enriched uranium had been transferred from the nuclear sites to secret hiding locations, according to i24 journalist Stein.
  • Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, quoting an Iranian official, said intelligence had thwarted a major Israeli plot against Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi in Tehran, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Iraq’s Hezbollah threatened to target US bases and close the Strait of Hormuz if Washington joined strikes on Iran, according to Al Hadath.
  • An Israeli official said Iran could likely sustain the current rate of missile fire at Israel for up to five months, provided their missile launchers were not destroyed, according to NBC.
  • Israel anticipated attacks from Iran’s proxies across the Middle East, according to Israel Channel 14.
  • An Israeli intelligence official said the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime was far from the truth, according to NBC.

Geopolitics: Other

  • A Japanese destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait after a Chinese jet approached it, according to Nikkei.
  • China President Xi met with New Zealand PM Luxon in Beijing, according to CCTV.
Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 08:04
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Appeals Court Upholds Trump's National Guard Deployment In Los Angeles Amid Unrest

A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that President Trump can continue using California National Guard troops in Los Angeles to respond to social unrest sparked by far-left NGOs, while a legal challenge over the president's authority proceeds. The ruling temporarily stays a lower court's decision that declared the deployment illegal without California's consent.

In a unanimous 38-page ruling, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit stated that President Trump acted within his legal authority under statutes permitting the federalization of the National Guard, deploying roughly 4,100 National Guard troops and 700 active-duty U.S. Marines to protect federal property and support immigration enforcement operations. 

Trump invoked Title 10 to deploy the National Guard in response to far-left NGOs organizing destabilization operations—so-called color revolutions—masquerading as anti-ICE protests. The uprising, facilitated by dark money networks tied to the left, aimed to ignite nationwide unrest and trigger a 'summer of love' reminiscent of the chaotic BLM riots in 2020.

Here are the key points from Newsom v. Trump, 25-3727, U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (San Francisco):

Context:

President Trump invoked 10 U.S.C. § 12406 to call 4,000 National Guard troops into federal service after violent protests damaged federal property and injured officers. The mission was limited to protecting federal personnel and facilities.

Legal Challenge:

California Governor Gavin Newsom and the state sued, arguing the order was unlawful ("ultra vires"), violated the Tenth Amendment, and failed procedural requirements by not going properly "through" the governor.

District Court's TRO (June 12):

The district judge blocked the deployment, citing a lack of statutory basis and procedural violations. He found California likely to succeed and said the deployment inflamed tensions and diverted critical state resources.

Ninth Circuit Ruling (June 19):

  • Statutory Authority Likely Valid: The court found the president likely acted lawfully under § 12406(3), which allows National Guard deployment when "regular forces" are insufficient to execute federal laws.

  • Judicial Review Allowed, but Deference Required: While the President's decision can be reviewed, courts must give it substantial deference due to long-standing precedent (e.g., Martin v. Mott).

  • Procedural Compliance Likely Met: The court held the procedural requirement to act "through the governor" was satisfied via California's Adjutant General, who acted under state law in the governor's name.

  • Public Interest & Irreparable Harm: The court found a strong federal interest in protecting personnel and property and ruled that allowing National Guard deployment outweighs California's concerns over public unrest or diverted resources.

In a post to his Truth Social platform, the president wrote late Thursday: "BIG WIN in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on the president's core power to call in the National Guard! The Judges obviously realized that Gavin Newscum is incompetent and ill prepared, but this is much bigger than Gavin, because all over the United States, if our Cities, and our people, need protection, we are the ones to give it to them should State and Local Police be unable, for whatever reason, to get the job done."

This time, Trump swiftly quelled what appeared to be the Democratic Party's latest attempt at a nationwide color revolution. The repeated maneuvering of left-aligned NGOs in such destabilization campaigns is deeply concerning. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill must investigate how much funding from the Inflation Reduction Act may have flowed to these NGOs (read here). 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 07:45
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US Intel: Iran Likely To Pursue Nukes If US Joins Israel's War - Trump Worried About 'Libya Scenario'

Reiterating a long-running US intelligence community consensus that Iran has not been building a nuclear bomb, US intelligence officials are warning that an American entry into Israel's war would likely incentivize Iran to pursue becoming a nuclear-weapon state after all. Meanwhile, insiders say President Trump is wary of turning Iran into "another Libya" if Israel's regime-change ambitions are somehow realized.   

In other major developments: 

  • President Trump on Thursday issued a statement seemingly granting more time for a diplomatic solution: "Considering there’s a significant likelihood of negotiations that may or may not happen with Iran soon, I will determine whether or not to engage in the next two weeks." 
  • The Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency has advised top officials that America's formidable 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs may be insufficient to destroy Iran's nuclear enrichment facility buried in a mountain at Fordo -- and that doing so may require a nuclear bomb. Otherwise, even in the wake of bombings of various other facilities, Iran could conceivably be capable of producing a bomb if it decided to.  
  • Steve Bannon joined Donald Trump for lunch at the White House on Thursday; Bannon is staunchly opposed to America entering Israel's war, telling an audience, "We can’t do this again. We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq.”  
  • Iranians have largely been cut off from the internet for more than 36 hours, with some observers claiming it reflects the government working to stifle domestic dissent, but most attributing it to Iranian wariness of potential cyberattacks.
  • Israel and Iran traded more attacks over Thursday night, with the Israeli Air Force claiming it hit ballistic missile launchers, missile production facilities and a nuclear research center, and Iran hitting the city of Beersheba, with unconfirmed reports of damage to a Microsoft building.

Speaking to the New York Times, senior intelligence officials say a US strike on the uranium enrichment facility buried under 300 feet of mountainous rock at Fordo, or a US-facilitated assassination of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would probably push Iran to build a nuclear bomb to deter further aggression against it. In 2003, Khamenei issued a religious order -- or fatwa -- prohibiting the development of any kind of weapon of mass destruction. That edict is "right now holding," a senior intel official told the Times

One of the officials cast doubts on Israeli claims that Iran could have a bomb in 15 days. Iran would first have to take uranium it's already enriched to 60% and enrich it to 90%. That's probably the easiest part. Next, they'd have to construct a nuclear explosive device, and miniaturize it so it can fit inside a missile warhead. As an alternative, US intel analysts speculate that Iran could build a crude, 10,000-pound Hiroshima-style bomb that would have to be dropped by plane -- which wouldn't be a particularly credible deterrent. The analysts say that, contrary to Israeli claims, it would take between several months and a year to have a missile-ready warhead after a hypothetical decision to pursue one. Of course, it's always worth noting that Netanyahu has been warning of an imminent Iranian nuclear bomb since 1992 -- when he said they would have one by 1997 at the latest.  

The US assessment that Iran has not decided to pursue a nuclear weapon comes three months after the same conclusion was shared with Congress by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, which in turn came 18 years after the intelligence community first made that assessment. When confronted with Gabbard's testimony in the wake of Israel's bombing-and-mass-assassination attack on Iran, Trump told a reporter, "I don’t care what she said. They were very close to getting a nuke." Vice President JD Vance offered his own flimsy deflection in a social media post, writing "Tulsi's testimony was in March, and a lot has changed since then." Thursday's remarks from senior intel officials severely undercut Trump's and Vance's characterizations.  

Unlike nuclear-weapon-state Israel, Iran is a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has long insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful. In 2015, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by which it agreed to physical modifications, additional monitoring and other provisions that would assure outsiders that the country would be incapable of enriching uranium to a weapons-grade level. Though Iran was in full compliance, President Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 and reimposed harsh economic sanctions on the country -- having promised to do so in a 2016 presidential campaign fueled by $45 million from Israel-focused billionaires Sheldon and Miriam Adelson. His JCPOA withdrawal came just a month after Trump appointed archetypal Iran hawk and neocon John Bolton as National Security Advisor. 

Trump withdrew America from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal soon after making notorious neocon warmonger John Bolton his national security adviser (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images via Politico)

After several days of the feeling that US engagement in Israel's war could be imminent, Trump's setting of a two-week timeframe for making that enormously consequential decision partially reflects his wariness that Iran could turn into a failed state if the Ayatollah's regime is toppled, according to administration officials who talked to the New York Post. One of the insiders said 

"[He] doesn't want it to turn into Libya...There are two reasons Trump talks about Libya: the first is the chaos after what we did to Gaddafi. The second is the Libya intervention made it more difficult to negotiate deals with countries like North Korea and Iran.”

Seeking to appease the West, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi famously surrendered his nuclear development program in 2003, only to be the victim of a US-NATO regime-change campaign in 2011 that culminated in his being anally raped with a bayonet and then savagely beaten to death. That dark chapter looms as a stark cautionary tale for rulers all around the world facing American demands. 

After surrendering his nuclear-weapon program, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year reign ended in a godawful death in Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton's regime-change campaign

Meanwhile, Libyans continue to suffer from the result of that Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton toppling of Gaddafi, which led to utter chaos, blacks being sold in open-air slave markets and illegal immigrants pouring into Europe as they flee the Western-cultivated Hell-scape. Insiders say Trump has also raised the specter of the disastrous outcomes of US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.  

Trump's confrontation with the ghosts of failed interventions -- past, present and future -- comes as Tucker Carlson, other major conservative figures and legions of MAGA social-media users are urging him not to get America involved in another foreign policy disaster. Is the growing right-wing uproar having an effect? 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 06:55
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US Resumes Student Visas With Stricter Social Media Vetting

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The State Department announced new vetting requirements on June 18, including social media screening for all student visa applicants.

“The State Department is committed to protecting our nation and our citizens by upholding the highest standards of national security and public safety through our visa process. A U.S. visa is a privilege, not a right,” the State Department said in a press release.

Chinese citizens wait to submit their visa applications at the US Embassy in Beijing on May 2, 2012. Mark Ralston/AFP/GettyImages

While student visa interviews—previously paused as the government reviewed its visa policy—have resumed, applicants will now be expected to set their social media profiles to “public” to allow screening by U.S. diplomatic officials. Failure to do so could be interpreted as an effort to hide certain online activity.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that those who may cause trouble for the United States or its allies, including violence or harassment against certain ethnic groups or supporting designated terrorist groups, could have their student visa applications rejected.

Every visa adjudication is a national security decision,” the State Department said. “The United States must be vigilant during the visa issuance process to ensure that those applying for admission into the United States do not intend to harm Americans and our national interests, and that all applicants credibly establish their eligibility for the visa sought, including that they intend to engage in activities consistent with the terms for their admission.”

The development comes roughly three weeks after a senior State Department official confirmed to The Epoch Times that it had ordered American embassies worldwide to pause student visa interviews as the agency works to enhance its vetting process.

In an internal cable signed by Rubio and leaked to the media on May 27, the agency said it was considering making strict social media vetting a requirement for all foreign students applying to study in the United States.

On Wednesday, ahead of the announcement, The Epoch Times learned that student visa interviews had resumed with the new rules in place.

Consular officers are also directed to review social media activity for signs of the applicant having possible disdain for the United States and its government, citizens, culture, founding principles, or institutions.

These changes will affect any applicants for the student (F), vocational (M), and exchange visitor (J) visas and are intended to bolster national security.

When the State Department paused student visa interviews late last month, agency spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said the Trump administration takes “very seriously the process of vetting who it is that comes into the country.”

We’ve always vetted people trying to come in. We’ve always looked at visas seriously,” she said. “Whether they be students, or if you’re a tourist who needs a visa, or whoever you are, we’re going to be looking at you.”

The very next day, Rubio announced that the United States would begin revoking visas for Chinese students, including any with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in “critical fields.”

In a short statement, the State Department confirmed that it would work with the Department of Homeland Security to “aggressively revoke” the visas while revising visa criteria to “enhance scrutiny of all future visa applications” from China and Hong Kong.

The State Department has accused the Chinese regime of monitoring its students abroad and mobilizing them through the Chinese Students and Scholars Association. Some of that group’s U.S. branches have openly admitted to being directed, supported, or financed by Chinese consulates.

Joseph Lord, Emel Akan, and T.J. Muscaro contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 06:30
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Spain's Historic Blackout Blamed On Poor Voltage Control

By John Kemp of JKempEnergy.com

Spain’s massive blackout was caused by overvoltage on the transmission system and the failure of the country’s generators to compensate by absorbing more reactive power, according to the official government investigation.

Investigators found no evidence a cyber-attack contributed to the nationwide blackout and did not directly blame the high share of renewable generation for causing a cascading failure across the network.

But investigators did note there was not enough synchronised generation connected to the network to maintain voltage within acceptable limits and those generators failed to behave as expected.

Efforts to connect an extra thermal generator came too late to prevent worsening instability and repeated overvoltage from causing the system to collapse.

Investigators recommended stricter enforcement of existing voltage control obligations for synchronised generators as well as the deployment of synchronised compensators across the network to improve stability.

The report also concluded that non-synchronous generators (including wind and solar generators) should be incentivised to contribute to voltage control in future.

The instability seems to have originated within Spain itself rather than being imported from the Europe-wide transmission network that stretches from Iberia all the way to Ukraine and Turkey.

Nonetheless, investigators noted Spain’s relative isolation from the continent-spanning transmission system may have made the instability worse.

Spain’s interconnections via France account for only 3% of capacity on the country’s network, well below the 15% recommended by EU regulations.

More interconnections with the rest of the European grid would probably not have averted the blackout but they have been a long-sought objective, one that investigators repeated.

EXCESSIVE VOLTAGE

Electricity demand on the morning of April 28 was relatively low, which contributed to the repeated overvoltage on the country’s transmission network.

Total demand on Spain’s peninsula network prior to the blackout was just 25,184 megawatts, well below the historical maximum of 44,876 megawatts.

Weather (temperatures were mild), time of day (noon) and day of the week (Monday) all contributed to relatively low demand.

But low demand can threaten grid stability because it can cause voltage to drift above the safe operating limits set by the system.

On Spain’s main transmission system, the target is 400 kilovolts, with regulations stipulating that voltage must be kept between 380 kV and 435 kV.

On the morning of April 28, voltage spiked repeatedly well above 400 kV, though it remained below the maximum threshold until just before the blackout.

Repeated spikes were a sign of problems. Surges were damped quickly. But investigators described the instability as “atypical and extraordinary.”

Grid controllers responded by connecting several additional transmission circuits to the network to reduce voltage across the system.

But with stability worsening, controllers contacted one of the country’s thermal generators with a request to start up and synchronise to the grid to improve voltage control.

The request was made at 12:26. The unidentified thermal power plant was scheduled to connect as soon as possible at 14:00. But entire transmission network collapsed just seven minutes later at 12:33.

CASCADING GRID FAILURE

According to the timeline established by the report, voltage spiked severely at 12:05 and again at 12:20, prompting the control room to contact the next-available thermal generator with a request to come online at 14:00.

But voltage started to climb again and at 12:32 surged above the maximum operational limit of 435 kV in parts of central and southern Spain.

Multiple small generators responded to excess voltage by disconnecting themselves from the network, causing a sudden dip in frequency.

In response, more generators disconnected themselves - either because voltage was too high or because frequency too low.

In the space of just 20 seconds so many generators disconnected that the system was on a path towards complete failure.

Like voltage, frequency must be kept close to target to avoid damaging the expensive machinery operated by generators and customers.

In Europe, target frequency is 50 cycles per second (Hertz) and relays are set to shed load automatically in stages when frequency drops to 49.0, 48.8, 48.6, 48.4, 48.2 and 48.0 Hz.

Load shedding is intended to protect the stability of the grid by disconnecting users and reducing demand to match the available generation.

In this instance, rapidly falling frequency triggered all six stages of under-frequency load shedding in less than 1.5 seconds, disconnecting users in a last-ditch attempt to stabilise the network.

Less than a second later, frequency crashed through the lower emergency limit of 47.5 and continued dropping to just over 46.1 Hz. By this time voltage had surged to 470 kV.

Load-shedding may have worsened the problem of overvoltage, adding to rather than reducing instability, according to the investigative report.

Faced with severe overvoltage and extreme underfrequency, all remaining generators raced to disconnect from the network and the grid collapsed.

Faced with the loss of stable external connections to the grid, nuclear generators shut down automatically as a safety precaution with the insertion of control rods into reactor cores to stop the reaction.

FREQUENCY AND INERTIA

After the blackout, many commentators, including me, asked whether the failure was caused by excessive reliance on inverter-based renewables and insufficient rotational inertia from synchronised thermal generators.

But investigators concluded the transmission system had enough inertia prior to the incident to meet planning requirements and ride through a reasonably foreseeable large-scale loss of generation.

Investigators instead identified problems with voltage control rather than frequency control as the root cause of the blackout.

Frequency deviations had been relatively small during the morning and frequency remained close to target until the cascading failure was already well underway.

Voltage and frequency are both aspects of power quality and intrinsically linked but are usually considered separately in the design and operation of transmission systems.

In this instance, it was overvoltage triggered the first disconnections, which then caused a problem with underfrequency and more disconnections.

Investigators determined the initial shock that sparked the cascading failure came from the generation side disconnecting in response to overvoltage.

There were sufficient levels of inertia and more than enough extra generation being held in reserve immediately before the blackout.

Investigators concluded no amount of extra inertia could have enabled the system to avert the cascading failure initially triggered by the overvoltage.

THERMAL GENERATORS

Immediately prior to the blackout, most generation on Spain’s peninsula system was coming from renewables (82%) with small shares from nuclear (10%), gas (3%), coal (1%) and cogeneration and waste (4%).

There were only 11 thermal power plants connected to the system with a specific obligation to help regulate voltage (6 gas-fired plants, 4 nuclear plants, and one coal-fired plant).

From a technical perspective, solar and wind generators can also contribute to voltage regulation, but there was no obligation on them to do so.

The report notes that the number of thermal generators connected to the grid (just 11) was the lowest so far this year.

Previously, the lowest number of generators connected to the grid had been 12 (on 13 days earlier in 2025) and there had usually been more.

The decision to order an extra thermal unit to connect to the network was too late to avert worsening voltage instability.

But investigators also noted that several already-connected thermal generators failed to respond as expected to the overvoltage.

Either they absorbed less reactive power than required (reducing voltage control) or in some cases actually generated reactive power (worsening the overvoltage).

The report observes one unnamed generator in the southern area “behaved visibly differently from other plants connected at the time” and concluded it exhibited “inappropriate behaviour for voltage control”.

Investigators also found that 20 out of 141 major electricity consumers that connect directly to the transmission network failed to meet their obligations to support voltage control.

Between 9% and 21% of nodes where local distribution networks connect to the high-voltage system also failed to behave as expected to support voltage control.

The report concluded a wide range of network participants “contributed to the increased voltage, or in any case, did not contribute to improve the situation to the extent expected by the transmission system operator.”

RENEWABLES VS THERMAL

Initial comment about the causes of the blackout polarised around the issue of whether the very high share of inverter-based renewable generation (specifically solar) was the root cause of the failure.

The other side of this argument was whether there was too little synchronised thermal generation connected to stabilise the network by providing rotational inertia.

The report dismisses the argument there was too much renewable generation and too little inertia on April 28.

But it does note thermal generators were the participants primarily responsible for voltage control and there were too few of them and they were not as effective as expected.

It reintroduced the question of grid stability when the share of inverter based renewables in the generation mix becomes very high via the backdoor.

Instead of renewables’ contribution to frequency control the report puts the spotlight on their contribution to voltage stability.

The report notes “there is a certain correlation between the stability of the voltages and the amount of solar generation or the amount of coupled synchronous generation, although this correlation is not equally strong in all locations.”

There is no inherent reason why renewable generators cannot be incentivised financially or required legally to contribute to voltage regulation any more than to frequency control.

The report notes synchronised condensers, static synchronous compensators (STATCOMs) and flexible alternating current transmission systems (FACTS) can all contribute to voltage regulation.

Some of these systems have already been embedded in Spain’s electricity systems.

The report recommends financial penalties for thermal generators who fail to comply with their existing voltage control obligations.

It urges the creation of a new auxiliary service market for voltage control that is technology neutral and open to any participants in the network, not just thermal generators.

It also urges the deployment of synchronous compensators across the peninsula and an update to FACTS systems to provide more damping of voltage operations.

Reflecting Spain’s prioritisation for renewables, the overall aim is to improve voltage control even as the share of renewables climbs and thermal generation declines.

The report’s authors claim there would be a four-fold benefit: lower costs, lower emissions, fewer curtailments of renewable generation, and new sources of income for all generators regardless of type.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The government’s report offers a comprehensive timeline and explanation of the factors that contributed to the peninsula-wide blackout on April 28.

Investigators blame problems with voltage control rather than frequency regulation as the root cause of the cascading power failure.

The report is careful to avoid attributing culpability for the failure to any one institution – avoiding difficult decisions about political and legal liability that are likely to be argued over in parliament and the courts for years.

Instead, it implies responsibility is diffused widely between the transmission operator, thermal power plants, major electricity consumers and local distribution companies.

No one institution was to blame; everyone contributed to the collective failure of the system to behave as it should have done.

Identifying voltage rather than frequency as the root cause the report mooted discussion about whether the system had sufficient rotational inertia and avoided taking sides in the emotive renewables versus thermal debate.

But it sharpened the closely related question about whether the system had enough voltage control and how to manage voltage fluctuations as the share of renewables increases and thermal generation declines.

As expected, many of the proposed solutions are very similar, creating and paying for new ancillary services, and greater use of technology to help balance the grid.

The report adopts a broadly pro-renewable perspective, absolving renewable generators from much of the blame for the blackout and focusing on how to supplement the declining voltage regulation from thermal generators.

The report recommends minor modifications to operations rather than fundamental changes to accommodate a high share of renewables in the generation mix rather than reverse it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 05:45
[personal profile] pan_netnet
жалобно ноют «За что вы нас убиваете? Мы кушать хотим!».

Ну а зачем ЧВК, которой в среднесрочной перспектив предстоит коренная реорганизация, гражданская промышленность? ВПК отвертночной сборки хватит.
[personal profile] pan_netnet
/watch?v=XrOQzJkodas
[personal profile] pan_netnet
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7808241
20.06.2025, 02:22

Правительство утвердило границы России в Балтийском море

Правительство России одобрило список географических координат, определяющих исходные линии для измерения ширины территориальных вод России в Балтийском море. Документ размещен на портале правовой информации.

Новый перечень заменил утвержденный в 1985 году постановлением Совета министров СССР документ.

«Исходная линия, от которой отмеряется ширина территориального моря РФ, ...образуется линией наибольшего отлива, проходящей от точки выхода линии сухопутного участка государственной границы РФ с Литовской Республикой до точки выхода линии сухопутного участка государственной границы РФ с Республикой Польша»,— говорится в документе.

В начале июня генсек НАТО Марк Рютте назвал Балтийское, а также Черное море «регионами НАТО» и заявил, что альянс готов дать «разрушительный» ответ на любые «непредвиденные обстоятельства».

Председатель Морской коллегии РФ Николай Патрушев в конце мая заявил, что НАТО усиливает военно-морское присутствие на Балтике и работает над укреплением разведывательного потенциала.

***
https://www.interfax.ru/russia/1031952
Москва. 19 июня. INTERFAX.RU - Президент РФ Владимир Путин назвал ложью и бредом сообщения, в которых утверждается, что Россия планирует напасть на страны Европы и НАТО.

"Вот эта легенда о том, что Россия собирается нападать на Европу, на страны НАТО, это вот та самая невероятная ложь, в которую пытаются заставить поверить население западно-европейских стран", - сказал Путин на встрече с руководителями мировых информационных агентств.

"Но это же, мы понимаем, что это бред", - добавил российский президент.
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Posted by Tyler Durden

Energy Secretary Grilled By Senate Panel Over Funding Clawbacks

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Energy Secretary Chris Wright justified the termination of 24 energy projects allocated $3.7 billion by Congress, during a Senate panel on Wednesday. Wright said the clawbacks were the first round of scrutiny by a newly created review board that is probing 500 authorized ventures set to receive $300 billion in funding through 2032.

Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project near Tonopah, Nevada, 190 miles northwest of Las Vegas, is an example of renewable energy projects spurred by President Joe Biden. Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images

DOE is undertaking a thorough review of financial assistance that identifies waste of taxpayer dollars, protects America’s national security, and advances President Trump’s commitment to unleash American energy dominance,” he told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in a two-hour June 18 hearing on his department’s proposed $46.3 billion fiscal 2026 budget request.

“These projects failed to meet the economic, national security or energy security standards necessary to sustain DOE’s investment, and taxpayers should not be forced to subsidize them,” Wright said, noting the terminated projects were among “179 awards worth $15 billion” reviewed with all but 24 passing muster.

The hearing was the first before a Senate panel since the chamber’s Finance Committee on June 16 released its draft adaption of President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful” budget bill adopted May 22 by the House.

The Senate’s plan largely replicates the House’s terminations of tax credits for electric vehicles, heat pumps, energy-efficient domestic appliances, and “rooftop” solar while eliminating or scaling back wind and solar subsidies expanded under 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Wright said among the first things he did after his January confirmation was ferret through projects set to receive IRA-authorized funding through DOE’s Loan Program Office.

“It’s deeply concerning how many billions of dollars were rushed out the door without proper due diligence in the final days of the Biden administration,” he said. DOE “shoveled out more than $100 billion … between Election Day and [Trump’s Jan. 20] inauguration.”

He cited several projects that provided little justification for federal funding, including one slated to receive $2.5 million but then sought, and garnered, $200 million without completing paperwork.

“In response to things like that, we created this program-review process where we have a team of cross-functional people to evaluate every project,” Wright said.

There’s 500 such projects,” he continued. “We’re going to evaluate every one of them in a professional manner—not a political manner, not a self-interested manner, but a business-like manner.

Wright issued the “case-by-case” review policy in a May 15 memorandum and, on May 30, announced “termination” of 24 awards granted by the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, clawing back $3.7 billion in allocations.

The projects include funding for carbon capture and sequestration, as well as “green energy” decarbonization with 16 awarded after President’s Trump’s Nov. 5 election.

Wright said more than 150 reviewed projects remain in the pipeline and those already begun will be funded. The department will review “at least 20 a week,” he said.

“We’re funding plenty of projects right now. When we evaluate them, plenty of projects will pass,” he said. “Other projects we’ll say, ‘Hey, can you modify it to make it more beneficial?’ Some will be modified, some will be ended.”

American Electric Power’s Mountaineer plant in New Haven, W.V., in 2009 became the world’s first to be fitted with carbon capture and sequestration technology. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

Constitutional Questions

Sens. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-Nevada), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), and Angus King (I-Maine) questioned the constitutional legality of rescinding funding approved under bills passed by Congress.

Those 24 programs, they were already enacted. Congress approved them,” Cortez-Masto said. “So what legal authority did you have to come back and terminate those?

“All the contracts, just like in business, have cancelation clauses,” Wright said. “We are in dialog with every one of those parties. Some projects can be fixed to make them more viable.”

Heinrich said during Wright’s January confirmation hearing, “I asked you if the executive branch has the authority, without Congress’s approval, to withhold or terminate funding Congress approved in law. You said you’d, quote, ‘Follow the laws and statutes of the United States of America.’

Cancellation of these awards crosses into impoundment territory and is certainly a breach of contract,” he added.

King was concerned with “a significant number of programs” being scrutinized: ”Can you assure me that review is professional and engineering-based and not political?”

“Absolutely, it is” apolitical, Wright said. “We’re evaluating the engineering, the science, the finance, and just the viability of the projects. Unfortunately, it wasn’t done when grants were given.”

Senators lobbied Wright to reevaluate rejected projects or fast-track others.

Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) said North Dakota natural gas operators see carbon capture and sequestration as a way to “crack the code” in boosting production.

Right now, he said, frackers extract “less than 10 percent of the oil out of Bakken shale and other shale plays” with “hot water and other things” ineffective in flushing more to the surface.

“CO2 will be much more effective,” Hoeven said, asking Wright to “make that happen” by reconsidering rejected and pending carbon projects.

“Glad you made that pitch,” Wright said, but added that carbon sequestration has not yet proven viable enough to justify taxpayer support.

“For a coal plant, for example, to do sequestration, basically you lose a third of the power out of the plant to inject the CO2 underground,” he said, but the science is evolving and “if we can spend $1 and get $2 of benefit, we’ll do that every day and on Sundays too.”

King pressed Wright to fast-track large-scale battery projects.

“One I’m particularly interested in is the largest grid-scale battery project being manufactured in West Virginia, but scheduled to be located in a small town in Maine,” he said. “That would make a huge difference” in advancing solar and wind energies.

“I’m very interested in that technology as well,” Wright said, promising “we’ll get onto that project.”

The Smackover Formation in southwest Arkansas, the area in the red-shaded sampling area within the inset, contains 5 million to 19 million metric tons of lithium, according to a study by the United States Geological Survey and Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment. USGS

Critical Mineral Projects

Cortez-Masto and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) asked Wright to ensure the reviews advance critical mineral development.

Cortez-Masto said President Trump on May 23 invoked the Defense Production Act, issuing a waiver for critical minerals. “I support it,” she said

Yet, when DOE canceled 24 projects a week later, among them was “one in Nevada using innovative solutions to create the country’s only all-domestic source of alumina,” she said, a critical mineral now imported from China, which controls 60 percent of global supply.

“So please explain to me how you’re making this decision when you identify critical minerals are necessary but, at the same time, you’re taking away essential funding for this country to be independent when it comes to these critical minerals?” Cortez-Masto asked.

“It really just comes down to the devil’s in the details,” Wright said. “We review every project we’re going through, just to say, ‘Is this project, at the end of the day, going to lead to a positive outcome?’”

Cotton said the DOE in September awarded Standard Lithium a $220.5 million grant to develop lithium reserves in Arkansas’ Smackover Formation, “where U.S. Geological Survey has found between 15 million and 19 million tons of lithium.”

“Demand for lithium is substantially increased in recent years, but the United States is currently only responsible for about 1 percent of lithium mining and less than 5 percent of advanced lithium chemical processing capacity globally,” he said. “When can Arkansans expect an answer on when the grant will be approved?”

“All the sizable projects will be done … by the end of August, for sure, maybe much sooner,” Wright said. “We want to be careful with American taxpayers’ monies, with monies you’ve allocated … that these projects are responsible, credible, and thoughtful, and going to lead to some good results.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 05:00
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Posted by Tyler Durden

Shell CEO: Contingency Plans Ready If Strait Of Hormuz Closure Triggers Energy Shock

Shell Plc is preparing contingency plans in case the conflict between Israel and Iran broadens and disrupts oil and gas flows through the critical maritime chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. 

On Thursday, CEO Wael Sawan told Bloomberg's Shery Ahn at the Japan Energy Summit & Exhibition in Tokyo, "If that artery is blocked, for whatever reason, it has a huge impact on global trade," adding, "We have plans in the eventuality that things deteriorate."

Although energy flows through the critical waterway—responsible for approximately 20% of global oil trade—remain uninterrupted (at the moment), traders have been on high alert all this week amid widespread GPS jamming in the region, which has degraded navigational awareness and may have contributed to what is shaping up to be a major ecological disaster.

On Wednesday, former Iranian Economy Minister Ehsan Khandouzi stated on X and warned...

"Starting tomorrow, for 100 days, no oil tankers or LNG cargoes will be able to pass through the strait without Iran's approval," Khandouzi said. 

He stated, "This policy is decisive if it is implemented in a timely manner. Any delay in its implementation means enduring more war inside the country. Trump's battle must be ended with a combination of economy and security." 

Such messaging, especially when paired with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval activity in the region, raises the increasing probability of IRGC actions targeting commercial shipping lanes in the strait. This escalation could serve as the catalyst that turns JPMorgan's $120–$130 per barrel Brent crude forecast from a scenario into a market reality.

Back to Shell's CEO—he told Bloomberg's Shery Ahn, "What is particularly challenging right now is some of the jamming that's happening," adding that "Shell is being very careful" along major maritime routes in the region.

The most imminent threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade could come as soon as this weekend. Bloomberg reported overnight:

Senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in coming days, according to people familiar with the matter, as Israel and the Islamic Republic continue to exchange fire.

Some of them pointed to potential plans for a weekend strike. Top leaders at a handful of federal agencies have begun getting ready for an attack, one person said.

Commenting on the dire situation, Manish Bhargava, CEO of Singapore-based Straits Investment, warned, "Direct US involvement in an attack on Iran would almost certainly trigger a major spike in oil prices." He said, "This surge would aggravate global inflation, making central bank efforts — like the Fed's — to control it more difficult and potentially delaying interest rate cuts." 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 04:15
[personal profile] pan_netnet
продолжим зарисовки
https://pan-netnet.dreamwidth.org/1711182.html

***

вопрос. а сколько потери составют от штатной числености?

штатная численность вс рф - % от потерь
2022 1013628 10,99%
2024 1500000 7,43%

чеченская

2022 мин 10000 3,43%
2022 мах 20000 1,72%
2024 мин 100000 0,34%
2024 мах 120000 0,29%

так как Рамзан Ахматович не публикует указы и штатые расписания своих, то оценки приблизительны исходя из слухов(в основной гуляющих по интернету) и высказываний самого дона Рамзана. в 24 хз входит ли в это число иностранный легион "ахмат" из ваней или нет.
[personal profile] pan_netnet
https://www.gazeta.ru/army/news/2025/06/19/26076860.shtml

Иран прекратит обстреливать Израиль только тогда, когда еврейское государство «будет наказано» и выплатит репарации исламской республике. Об этом сообщается в заявлении иранского Высшего совета национальной безопасности (ВСНБ), которое цитирует агентство IRNA.

«Возмездие продолжится до тех пор, пока враг не будет наказан и репарации не будут выплачены», — отмечается в заявлении.

***
воевать до последнего перса. украйна 2.0

похоже тот рубеж, когда еще можно было отыграть назад, не ввязываясь в затяжную бойню, пройден.

не хватает тольео янки в этой веселой компании. пора бы уже гробы и американским джонам с джесиками пополучать.
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Posted by Tyler Durden

Turkish Public Increasingly Worried About Direct Conflict With Israel

Via The Middle East Eye

A day before Israel attacked Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was at the Knesset, welcoming Argentinian President Javier Milei with open arms. "Argentina became a safe haven for thousands of Jews," Milei told Israeli politicians. "They sought refuge from economic hardship and antisemitic persecution. Not only in Eastern Europe, but also in the Ottoman Empire," he said. "An empire that I don't think will be renewed anytime soon, even though there are those who disagree with me."

The remarks, which were clearly directed at Turkey and its long-serving President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, were not lost on officials in Ankara. A burgeoning regional power, Turkey has played an outsized role in the Middle East since the so-called Arab Spring uprisings of the 2010s.

Amid the new power dynamic that has taken shape in the region, Ankara has seen its stock increase in major western capitals. Such has been its rise that on Thursday, Turkey was among a small group of US allies notified in advance that Israel would be launching its attack on Iran.

Smoke billows from an oil refinery following an Israeli strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on 17 June 2025. AFP

Hours later, early on Friday, Israel began its assault on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, and started assassinating high-profile security, intelligence and military commanders, along with nuclear scientists. The attacks, which also targeted residential areas and civilian infrastructure, have so far killed more than 500 people and wounded at least 1,300, many of them civilians.

In response, Iran has fired barrages of missiles towards Haifa, Tel Aviv and other major Israeli cities.

Turkey has lamented the escalation, describing Israel's assault as unprovoked, especially at a time when US intelligence suggested Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. While the escalation has been characterized as sudden, and one that has caught many regional states by surprise, Ankara was long bracing for an Israeli attack on Iran.

In September, when Israel killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Turkish officials studied possible scenarios in the event of a severe Israeli attack and a potential wider regional conflict. They prepared contingency plans, including measures against possible waves of refugees. 

In October, Ankara also initiated negotiations with the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, to prevent the group from being used as a proxy by either Iran or Israel.

Israel-Turkey relations

Turkey has historically maintained good ties with Israel, despite ups and downs due to Israel's wars with the region's countries. Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel, in 1949, and gradually became an ally of Tel Aviv in the 1990s, when the Turkish security apparatus needed its help to counter the PKK during a period of domestic instability.

Since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took power in 2003, the relationship has gradually deteriorated from a strategic partnership to that of neighbours who frequently confront each other over the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere. 

Relations soured after Israel raided the Mavi Marmara ferry in 2010, killing 10 Turkish activists in international waters, but they later improved. But tensions heightened again in late 2023 when Ankara decided to walk back from the rapprochement due to the war on Gaza, which Turkish officials believe constitutes a genocide.

Since Israel's campaigns to degrade Hezbollah last year and the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria, the region has been transformed by Netanyahu's actions. Where Iran once dominated, Israel is now increasingly the key regional power. 

Israeli officials have publicly begun to state that the only other player with significant resources they face is Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has reiterated several times since December that the region should not be dominated by any single power, including Turkey itself. The first significant challenge between Turkey and Israel was Syria, as Netanyahu's government made sure to oppose any Turkish bases with radar and air defence installations in southern Syria. 

American officials, worried about possible incidents, encouraged both countries to hold talks, resulting in the establishment of a hotline between Turkey and Israel in April. 

Talks progressed to the point where Turkish officials included Syrian representatives in discussions with the Israelis, in the hope of finding a middle ground to stop Israeli attacks on Syrian territory. The main issue was control of Syrian airspace. Ankara delayed its plans to quickly take control of the bases until the deconfliction talks with Israel were completed, effectively later giving Israel a window of opportunity to attack Iran. 

For the Turks, this did not involve Turkish airspace. Turkish officials advised Israel to address its concerns over the airspace issues directly with Syria rather than Ankara.

Missile program accelerating

For decades, Turkey has viewed Iran as a destabilizing force and opposed Tehran's ambitions to obtain a nuclear weapon. However, Israel's unilateral attack on Iran, which has failed to provide convincing evidence that Tehran is close to developing one, was seen by the Turkish public as a sign that Israel could one day target Turkey, a Nato ally deeply integrated into the western security architecture.

This sense of threat was echoed by the head of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, a key ally of Erdogan. 

On Tuesday, Bahçeli warned that Israel's military campaign against Iran is part of a broader strategy to encircle Turkey and undermine its regional ambitions. "The political and strategic goal of Israel is clear," he said. "To surround Anatolia and sabotage Turkey's path toward a terrorism-free future on behalf of its masters."

To reassure the Turkish public, officials began leaking certain details to the media. One Turkish columnist claimed that on the night of the initial attack, Turkish radars detected Israeli F-35s, prompting Turkey to scramble F-16s and AWACS early-warning aircraft to track the Israeli operation. 

Another columnist claimed that some of the Israeli jets that took off for the attack unintentionally violated Turkish airspace on the same night, and left rapidly after Turkey scrambled F-16s and warned them by radio. "This isn't Turkey's war," said one Ankara insider close to the government. 

Below: People of Turkey have taken to the streets to protest against Israel & show support for Islamic Republic of Iran.

"Yet it shows that we should study this attack in depth and take relevant steps to prepare us for any possible future risk and options." High-ranking Turkish officials held two rounds of security meetings to discuss further contingency plans. The Turkish military has also closely studied the war tactics employed by Israel. 

Erdogan himself responded to the attack by calling regional leaders, and US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. He also made specific calls to Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani, both of whom lead Turkey’s land neighbours. 

Turkish readouts suggest Erdogan specifically advised them not to get involved in the recent escalation between Israel and Iran.

On Monday, Erdogan said that Turkey was accelerating its medium- and long-range ballistic missile programme and deepening its deterrence to make Turkey a country no one would dare to defy. He vowed on Wednesday that Turkey would make its defence industry completely independent.

He later shared his speech on X, featuring the Ottoman Imperial seal, as Netanyahu referenced last week. "The victorious army of the Ottoman Empire had a principle," Erdogan said. 

"If you want independence, if you want freedom, if you want to live on this land with your honour, dignity, and integrity, if you want economic prosperity, if you want abundance, wealth, and harmony, if you want peace, you must always be ready for war."

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 03:30
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Posted by Tyler Durden

Supply Fears Send EU Diesel Prices Soaring As Bloc Exposed To Strait Of Hormuz Risks

European diesel prices rallied for a fifth straight session, driven by mounting anxiety that critical Middle East shipping lanes could be choked off. The conflict between Israel and Iran has raised alarm bells across the EU, which has become increasingly dependent on fuel shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz since losing access to Russian supplies. 

"Supply-security fears are driving the surge in European diesel prices," Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at energy consultancy FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg. "Many importers are rushing to restock now, in case a prolonged disruption occurs due to a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz," he added.

Here are the key points of strength in the European diesel market because of Hormuz blockade fears:

  • Diesel's premium to crude jumped above $25 a barrel, highest since March 2024.

  • Backwardation widened sharply, with July diesel now $21.25/ton above August, and December 2024 trading $45.25/ton above December 2025 — up from just $0.50 on June 9.

  • Traders rushed to unwind bearish bets, closing out over 100,000 gasoil futures contracts, the most in any 4 days since 2021.

According to Bloomberg estimates, Europe imported approximately 850,000 barrels a day of diesel last year through the Strait of Hormuz. This critical maritime chokepoint leaves Europe highly vulnerable to regional instability and potential supply disruptions.

Europe has become more susceptible to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to a combination of increased structural dependency, limited local refining capacity, and a post-Russia supply realignment:

  • Europe banned Russian diesel imports following the Ukraine invasion, cutting off its largest and most reliable supplier.

  • As a result, Europe pivoted heavily to the Middle East, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, to fill the gap—much of that supply transits Hormuz.

Nice work, Brussels. The Strait of Hormuz stands as a massive single point of failure—any disruption in this critical chokepoint risks triggering a shockwave across European energy markets. Fresh data shows vessel traffic through the strait is already slowing (read more here). 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 02:45

NATO Is The United States

Jun. 20th, 2025 06:00 am
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Posted by Tyler Durden

NATO Is The United States

Authored by Vijay Prashad via Consortium News,

On June 24 and 25, the members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will strut around the streets of The Hague for their annual summit – the first since Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency and the first under new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

On March 13, Rutte visited Trump in the Oval Office, where he praised the U.S. president on a number of fronts, including the war in Ukraine. Rutte ended the meeting by telling Trump that he was looking forward to hosting him in The Hague, his “hometown,” and was eager to "work together to ensure that [the NATO summit] will be a splash, a real success projecting American power on the world stage."

There are 32 full members of NATO, 30 from Europe and two from North America. The United States is only one among them, yet, as Rutte made clear in his statement, it is the one that defines NATO and is but a vehicle for the projection of US power.

Via War on the Rocks

There should be no doubt about that fact. It is precisely for this reason that the idea of the U.S. leaving NATO — as Trump threatened to do if the Europeans did not increase their military spending — is moot. NATO is the United States.

From Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research, the No Cold War collective, and its European partners at the Zetkin Forum for Social Research comes the June dossier, NATO: The Most Dangerous Organization on Earth.

The title is bold but not hyperbolic. It reflects the facts before us. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, NATO has conducted some of the most lethal wars on the planet and now threatens us with the unthinkable possibility of nuclear conflict.

The dossier provides ample evidence of this. Here, we simply note two of the alliance’s more egregious acts over the past decades:

  • It was NATO that dismembered Yugoslavia in 1999.
  • It was NATO that destroyed the Libyan state in 2011.

It is erroneous to see NATO as an autonomous actor. NATO, as Rutte so eloquently stated, is an instrument of “projecting American power on the world stage.”

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has used NATO to incorporate Eastern Europe into a pliable set of states subordinate to its interests. When the European Union expanded eastward and sought to build autonomous European institutions, NATO came along and ensured that the United States would be the engine of any European expansion.

One might be forgiven for having forgotten the warning that came not from Russia’s current President Vladimir Putin but from his decidedly pro-U.S. predecessor Boris Yeltsin, who warned during NATO’s 1995 bombing of the Bosnian Serbs,

“this is the first sign of what could happen when NATO comes right up to the Russian Federation’s borders. …The game of war could burst out across the whole of Europe.”

In 1990, the Soviet Union reluctantly agreed to the reunification of Germany and its entry into NATO under assurances that the alliance would not expand eastward (the U.S. also used the move to “keep the Germans down” by keeping them anchored within NATO structures). [See Patrick Lawrence: A Culture of Submission]

But there was no agreement that the U.S. could use NATO as an instrument to project power right up to Russia’s borders. Nor was there any mandate for NATO to be used in far-off theatres like the South China Sea to confront the People’s Republic of China under the pretext of freedom of navigation and regional stability.

Shackling US Rivals

NATO — against the self-interest of its European member states — has been drawn into confrontations against Russia and China that are entirely about the U.S. wanting to shackle its “near-peer rivals.”

These confrontations have nothing to do with European security: neither Russia nor China have threatened Europe, with Russia repeatedly reiterating that its war in Ukraine has everything to do with threats on its borders and China emphasising that it is a defensive power with no aggressive intentions regarding Europe.

Before Donald Trump took office in January, his transition team told European officials that the president-elect would ask NATO member states to increase their military spending to 5 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared to the previous target of 2 percent.

Most states would not be able to comply with this dramatic increase without deep cuts to their social expenditure (as of late 2024, Poland is the only member state that spends more than 4 percent of its GDP on its military – 4.12 percent to be exact – while the United States officially spends 3.38 percent).

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said that while this 5 percent demand would not come with a deadline, “the United States expects every ally to step up with concrete plans, budgets, timelines, [and] deliverables to meet the 5 percent target and close capability gaps.”

From NATO’s founding in 1949 — and even throughout the Cold War — there was no firm benchmark for military spending for member states (such as percentage of GDP).

The 1952 Lisbon Agreement on NATO force levels, which set targets for the number of conventional and reserve forces, simply could not be met due to the privations in post-war Europe.

In the 1970s, NATO members had to fill out a Defence Planning Questionnaire to assess national military spending efforts, but no targets could be set.

During Ronald Reagan’s presidency (1981–1989) — when the U.S. was spending around 6 percent of GDP on defence — questions were again raised about force level goals and defence spending, and there were calls for European members states to increase their share to as much as 4 percent of GDP.

In the early 1990s, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington feared that NATO states would cut their military budgets. At the 2002 NATO Summit in Prague, alliance leaders adopted the Prague Capabilities Commitment, which once more called for the need to modernize forces in the context of the War on Terror, but no formal spending target was established.

It was not until the 2006 Riga Summit, when NATO officially endorsed the 2 percent target, that the first formal benchmark for military spending among member states emerged. Though pressure mounted at the 2014 Wales Summit to comply with this hitherto unmet goal, there was still no real enthusiasm for it.

Trump pushed hard during his first term, suggesting that the U.S. would leave NATO if the Europeans did not increase their military spending. Then, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the 2 percent goal began to be seen — as then NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said — “not as a ceiling, but the minimum, a floor.”

In anticipation of this year’s summit in The Hague, current NATO Secretary General Rutte said that NATO members must “shift to a wartime mindset and turbo charge our defence production and defence spending.”

Various European institutes and movement platforms have already begun to release documents in anticipation of the upcoming NATO summit.

One is the annual report from the German Institutes of Peace and Conflict Research (Bonn International Centre for Conflict StudiesInstitut für Friedensforschung und SicherheitspolitikInstitut für Entwicklung und Frieden, and the Leibniz Institut für Friedens-und Konfliktforschung), which argues that Europe must prepare for a post-U.S. NATO by increasing its own military spending and moving toward non-lethal forms of diplomacy such as arms control and peace-building measures.

This is one approach to the NATO crisis, but it suffers from two key flaws: first, it misunderstands Europe’s role in NATO by treating it as an equal partner, when NATO is in fact an instrument for the subordination of Europe to U.S. strategic aims, and second, even if member states in Europe increase their military spending to 5 percent of GDP, they simply do not have the capacity to do so.

Via UT Arlington archives

The British government’s Strategic Defence Review 2025 is basically a recipe for bankruptcy. Britain simply does not have the resources to build a new “hybrid navy” with ‘”hybrid airwings,” provide housing for the working class, or refurbish its health care system. It is easy to write about a “whole-of-society” approach but hard to find the money to build a society strained by so many afflictions.

On the other hand, the National Union of Rail, Maritime, and Transport Workers and the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) make a perfectly reasonable case for “human security and common security,” as they write it in their Alternative Defence Review. They argue this can be achieved by:

  1. Prioritizing diplomacy, global cooperation and conflict prevention.
  2. Investing in health, education, climate resilience, social care and the creation of well-paid, secure, unionised, and socially useful jobs.
  3. Significantly reducing military spending.
  4. Immediately halting arms exports to countries involved in active conflict or human rights abuses (including Israel and the Gulf States).
  5. Preparing and executing a just transition for defense-dependent workers and communities.

These are sensible, achievable goals in a world where most peoples want peace and progress, not war and waste.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/20/2025 - 02:00

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